Is Obama On the Ropes? History Has Clues

Some political pundits are predicting Obama's demise, implying that the mid-term elections weakened him to the point where he cannot recover for 2012.  However, they are just blowing smoke.  Nearly every president for the last 30 years has suffered losses in Congress at the mid-way point of his first term.  Let's look at the facts.

• A national poll taken shortly before this year's mid-term elections showed that 47% of respondents want Obama to seek re-election in 2012 -- back before the 1982 midterms, Gallup reported that only 36% wanted Reagan to run for re-election.  Yet, two years later, Reagan won re-election winning 49 of the 50 states.
• In 1994, mid-way through Bill Clinton's first term, Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, when Democrats lost 54 seats.  Yet, Clinton sailed to victory in 1996.

"Every midterm election, the American public gets buyer's remorse," says presidential historian Douglas Brinkley, who also teaches history at Rice University.  "It happened to Ronald Reagan in 1982. Then the Democrats picked up steam and it happened to Bill Clinton in 1994. There's always a bit of a backlash."

"We're a very impatient society," Brinkley says. "People want problems solved quickly. It's a bit of a curse that the art of winning the presidency is to talk with grand rhetorical flourishes. But the act of being a president is to deliver on those promises. We are finding out that it's often tougher than candidates think."

Obama and the Democrats can regroup and do well in 2012.  They need to start planning and acting NOW.